There's a liquor store I won't name. It looked like it hadn't been touched since the Carter administration. I'm walking the aisles — eyes scanning
shelves the way you do when you've been doing this long enough to know that's where the interesting bottles live.
I reach up and pull down an Old Fitzgerald Bottled in Bond.
I flip it over to the tax strip.
I did the math standing right there in the aisle.
I paid $5.99 for it.
The guy behind the register was pleased to get rid of it.
What's Happening in Kentucky Right Now
Before I explain that bottle — and I will — I want to show you where bourbon stands today.
Right now there are 16.1 million barrels of bourbon aging in Kentucky. That's an all time record.
At the same time:
- Production has been cut 28% in 2025 — the lowest since the pandemic
- Jim Beam paused their entire Clermont distillery for all of 2026
- Brown-Forman laid off 650 people and closed their cooperage
- 50 craft distilleries went under in 2025 alone
- Used barrels that were selling for $200 eighteen months ago are now going for $50
300 million cases aging. 35 million cases sold every year. That's nearly nine years of inventory sitting in Kentucky rickhouses right now.
When I first heard that number I just stopped. Because I'd heard something like it before.
When the Industry Got Weird
Picture Kentucky in the early 1970s.
Distilleries running full tilt. Stills going day and night. Warehouses filling up fast. Bourbon was built on post-war optimism. Demand was strong, the future looked good, everyone kept distilling.
Then vodka happened.
Clear spirits became fashionable. Your parents' generation decided bourbon was something their grandfather drank. Demand softened. Warehouses filled up. Distilleries running flat out suddenly had more whiskey than they could move.
You'd think the industry would slow down.
They didn't.
They got weird.
When you can't sell bourbon as bourbon you start selling it as a chess set. Jim Beam decanters. Wild Turkey collectibles. Genie bottles. Bowling pins. Train sets. The industry was throwing everything at the wall.
You know what they're doing now to move inventory?
Selling the barrels as garden planters.
Different glut. Same desperation.
But the strangest thing wasn't what happened outside the bottle.
It was what happened inside.
How to Read a Bottled in Bond Tax Strip
Bottled in Bond is a government standard going back to 1897. 100 proof, single distillery, single distillation season, aged at least four years in a federally bonded warehouse. Congress's guarantee of what was actually in the bottle.
Part of that system was the tax strip — the green stamp over the cap. Flip the bottle over, find the strip, read two dates.
Distilled date. Bottled date.
Right there on every bottle.
Subtract one from the other. That's how old the whiskey actually is — regardless of what the label says.
The Four Bottles
I have four Bottled in Bond bottles from the glut era. Here's what the tax strips say:
Old Fitzgerald BIB Stitzel-Weller DSP-KY-16
I found this one in a liquor store that looked like it hadn't been touched since the Carter administration. Old Fitzgerald Bottled in Bond. Distilled at Stitzel-Weller — DSP-KY-16 — one of the most celebrated distilleries in bourbon history.
Label says six years old.
Distilled 1972. Bottled 1980.
That's eight years. Not six.
The whiskey sat because nobody was buying. When they finally bottled it they labeled it at the minimum — even though what was in the bottle was considerably better.
I put it on the counter. Guy rings it up. $5.99. I kept my face completely straight.
He said — "you sure you want this old whiskey?"
I said — "yeah I think so."
He was tickled to get rid of it.
That was the glut dividend. And I got mine for $5.99.
And just so you know — it's still remarkable. Eight year old Stitzel-Weller bourbon that nobody wanted.
Old Charter BIB Bernheim DSP-KY-2 / Bottled at Buffalo Trace DSP-KY-113
Same era. Different store. Different city. I'm working my way through Baltimore. Store by store. I've got a list.
Old Charter Bottled in Bond. Distilled at the Bernheim distillery in Louisville. Bottled at what is now Buffalo Trace in Frankfort.
Label says four years old.
Distilled 1973. Bottled 1981.
Eight years. Not four.
Two different distilleries. Same story. This wasn't a coincidence. Two of the most important names in bourbon today — connected to one glut era bottle that sat on a shelf because nobody wanted it.
I.W. Harper BIB Bernheim DSP-KY-1 / Old Quaker Indiana DSP-IND-2
I.W. Harper. One of America's most celebrated bourbons — shipped almost entirely to Japan during the glut because Americans didn't want it.
Distilled 1976. Bottled 1983.
Seven years. Four year label.
Stillbrook Corn Whiskey BIB DSP-ILL-2
Rinse and repeat.
Distilled 1971. Bottled 1978.
Not four years. Seven years.
The Four Bottle Lineup
Four bottles. Kentucky. Indiana. Illinois. Bourbon. Corn whiskey. Some of America's most prestigious labels. All labeled at the minimum. All aged considerably longer. All sitting on shelves because nobody was buying.
I've shown these to people who've been collecting for decades and they just shake their heads.
This wasn't one distillery making one unusual decision. This was the industry. Whiskey aging whether anyone wanted it or not.
I still get a little — I don't know — something when I line these up. These distilleries are gone. These tax strips don't exist anymore. This specific window — closed.
That was the glut dividend.
The Distilleries We Lost
Wild Turkey. Four Roses. Buffalo Trace. The ones you know today — they survived by making hard decisions.
Some distilleries didn't make it through.
Stitzel-Weller — the distillery that made the Old Fitzgerald — stopped distilling in the early 1990s. Sat abandoned for decades. Old Taylor ceased production in the 1980s. Gone for 40 years. Old Quaker in Indiana. Closed late 1980s. Never came back.
The people who made these whiskeys didn't know they were in a glut. They just kept doing their jobs. Making bourbon. Until the day they couldn't.
The Modern Parallel
Look at the inventory chart from the 1960s to today.
1960s — optimism, expansion, running hard. The glut hits. Distilleries slow down, close, disappear. Inventory bottoms out around 2000. Then the bourbon boom. Demand surges. The industry rebuilds. Expands again. Runs hard again.
And now — 300 million cases aging. 35 million sold annually.
They did it again.
When I started getting into bourbon — mid to late 80s — bourbon was just bourbon. Nobody was camping outside liquor stores. Nobody was flipping bottles.
I remember thinking BTAC was expensive at $45. I actually debated it.
- Everyday bourbon — up 121%. Roughly keeping pace with inflation.
- BTAC MSRP — up 600%.
- Pappy on the secondary market — up 1,400%.
- Median household income — up 959%.
I was buying BTAC for $45. Walking into stores, picking it off the shelf. No lottery. No waitlist. No secondary market.
I remember thinking — I should probably buy more of these.
And then thinking — nah, there'll always be more.
There wasn't.
At some point bourbon stopped being a drink and started behaving like an asset.
That always ends the same way.
The glut of the 1970s taught the industry a painful lesson. The question is — will they slow down soon enough this time?
What to Watch For
This is from one trip to DC. I'm driving down a back street. I pull over. Walk into a liquor store that looks like it hasn't changed since 1975. Guy behind the register looks at me like I'm lost. I start pulling bottles off the shelf. He says — "that stuff's been here since my dad ran this place." I said — "perfect."
Three numbers that tell the whole story:
$5.99 — an eight year old Stitzel-Weller bourbon. Nobody wanted it.
$45 — BTAC off the shelf. No lottery. No waitlist.
Zero — people lined up outside liquor stores.
That window is closed now. But another one may be opening.
Here's what to watch for:
- Watch for discounting on mid-shelf and premium bottles. A bottle that's been $60 for three years showing up at $45 — that's a signal.
- Watch for age statements quietly reappearing on expressions that haven't carried them in years.
- Watch for better availability on things that have been allocated forever. Buffalo Trace on the shelf every week — pay attention to why.
- Watch for the mid-tier getting genuinely interesting again. That's where the glut dividend shows up first.
And if you ever find a Bottled in Bond with a tax strip intact — flip it over. Find the distilled date. Find the bottled date. Do the math.
You might be holding something considerably older than the label suggests.
And if the price is right — you'll know exactly what to do.
That's not a trick.
That's history.
In Summary
I've stood in these rickhouses. Walked these floors. Poured from barrels that have been aging longer than some of you have been alive.
And there's something about this hobby — something I find hard to put into words — that keeps pulling me back.
The last bourbon glut was painful for the industry. Distilleries closed. Brands disappeared. Decades of history went quiet.
But every time I walk past those old buildings — I think about the people who worked there. And I think about the bottles they left behind.
For the drinker who was paying attention — and patient — it was one of the best times in bourbon history to just go buy something good.
I don't know if we're heading into another one. But if we are — you'll recognize it now. And you'll know what to do.
I pick up that bottle of Old Fitz sometimes just to remind myself.
The next bourbon cycle may not be about scarcity.
It may be about patience.
And patience may bring back something else collectors lost during the boom — but that's a conversation for another video.
Pour thoughtfully, draw slowly, and savor the journey.
-- Greg
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