Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Bourbon Shortage - maybe / maybe not

Let's say you live in Houston Texas...chances are you can walk into any store and find W.L. Weller 12 year for $23 (I paid that just two weeks ago so it's real).  Let's say you walk into a liquor store in Pensacola Florida and see that same bottle on the shelf except it's behind glass and costs $199 (that's real too).  Here in Virginia fat chance finding any Weller products as Weller 12, Weller Antique and Special Reserve have pretty much disappeared from the shelves.  So, for me, there's a shortage because what was once found simply by walking into an ABC, now is not. 

About 6 weeks ago Tripp Mickle a staff writer with the Wall Street Journal contacted me about a story he was doing on whether there was a pending bourbon shortage.  It was a simple question but really produces a complex answer...or maybe non-answer.  Go back 4 decades and the American Distilling industry experienced a significant downturn in demand.  So much so that distilleries were bottling extra aged bourbon in labels that stated "This whiskey is four years old", only, it wasn't.  The glut lasted for quite a few years.  The difference now is that world demand for whiskey is at an all time high.  Japan has been a large consumer of American whiskey for a long time; so much so that they purchased both Four Roses and Beam Global.  China is a large consumer as is Europe.  That wasn't the case back in the 70's when all those barrels sat in the rick houses.  So, while a second glut is possible, I think unlikely.  The world loves bourbon and rye.

The Wall Street Journal article was released yesterday and makes for some interesting reading.  Yours truly is featured in the piece.  Additionally, the WSJ blog has a secondary posting on three bourbons worth the hunt.  Before anyone comments on the picture....I agree, I look pretty miserable.  I didn't get to pick what Polaroid was used.

Distillers are producing more now than ever, new distilleries are opening, craft distilling is gaining greater foothold in the market, storage is expanding and new expressions are popping up almost monthly.  It's a great time for whiskey drinkers; even for Scotch, Irish, Japanese and other world whiskies.

My take?  There is a shortage but the net effect isn't felt among the typical consumer who picks up a Jack Daniels, Jim Beam White label or Makers Mark.  Those guys pump out serious distillate.  I'm talking about Limited Release and Small Batch.  Those bottles when released get snatched up in no time making acquisition very difficult.  I've been collecting long enough to have seen the shift in the marketplace where bourbon is hotter now than ever before.  So, if you like Blanton's, maybe pick up two bottles instead of one....you never know what tomorrow will bring.

7 comments:

  1. Dude...how could you let the world in on OWA? That hurts us guys who dont have a ridiculously awesome bunker filled with the stuff. Sigh.

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    1. Unfortunately Steve, the run on OWA preceded me saying anything. It's been missing from my area for quite some time. In April of this year I reported that K&L was limited to 1 case per week which in turn limited customers to 1 bottle. The secret's been out for some time my friend.

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  2. Yes, I've felt it here in Miami as well. Sucks.

    Good bourbon is like Fight Club - the #1 rule of Fight Club is YOU DONT TALK ABOUT FIGHT CLUB!!

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  3. I found a place near where I live that has Antique for $27 a bottle (slightly higher than other vendors that are sold out). I'm guessing you would think it wise for me to bunker it?

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    1. If you like this label and since the price is right, I would grab a couple bottles and put down. As I've said many times before "It's never cheaper than it is today".

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  4. Thanks for sharing. Fairly new to bourbon and stumbled on your blog. Your bunker is awesome!!!

    Regarding Weller, I had been searching my area (westchester county, NY) for weeks with no luck. Finally, last week, I called around and looks like some stores now have them in stock. The kicker, one place had it online for $115 a bottle. Another $90 a bottle. I was able to find a store that had both OWA and Weller 12 for $29 and $30, respectively. I ended up buying everything the owner had on the shelf (3 OWA and 4 Weller 12).

    I think once these got labelled "Poor Man's Pappy!!!" the bottles starting disappearing.

    Keep up the great work.

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    1. A friend of mine was home in NY over the holidays. I turned him on to OWA a couple years back but it's now exceedingly difficult to find here in VA and he's complained about lacking OWA on his bar. He found one store near his house in NY that had a couple cases on the floor so he purchased one bottle. Re-thinking the single purchase, he went back two days later and they were sold out.

      The prices for the most part are stable in the $30+ range for Weller 12 but there are some exceptions like you found there in NY and the store I mentioned in FL selling it for $199. Good for you going back and grabbing what the store had....you won't regret that purchase down the road.

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